Zach Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+100/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (9.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
Zach Wilson's ground efficiency has diminished this season, averaging just 5.56 yards-per-carry vs a 7.98 mark last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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