Zach Wilson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Passing Yards

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 210.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 203.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 210.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to use backup QB Zach Wilson in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Zach Wilson's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 55.9% to 60.6%.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (286.0 per game) versus the Broncos defense this year.
The Broncos defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the most in football.
As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Denver's collection of CBs has been awful this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the projection model to run just 61.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Jets have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 49.5 plays per game.
In this week's contest, Zach Wilson is predicted by our trusted projection set to total the 10th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 33.4.
With a terrible tally of 180.0 adjusted passing yards per game (24th percentile), Zach Wilson has been as one of the bottom QBs in football this year.
With a poor 5.84 adjusted yards-per-target (15th percentile) this year, Zach Wilson stands among the least efficient QBs in football.

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