Zach Wilson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 205.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 206.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 205.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
The model projects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Zach Wilson has thrown for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (206.0) this year than he did last year (177.0).

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the projection model to call only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (just 56.0 per game on average).
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
With a poor 6.05 adjusted yards-per-target (12th percentile) this year, Zach Wilson ranks among the worst per-play QBs in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.35 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the league.

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