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Zach Wilson

Zach Wilson Completions
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs

Zach Wilson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-114/-114).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Jets are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the NFL against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season (71.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The Jets rank as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 57.7% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.95 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Zach Wilson has been among the least on-target passers in football this year with a 55.7% Completion%, checking in at the 9th percentile.

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