Zach Wilson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Completions

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-112/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are an enormous 8.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Zach Wilson has been among the least accurate QBs in the league since the start of last season with a 56.1% Completion%, ranking in the 12th percentile.
The Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the best CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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