Zach Wilson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Completions

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to attempt 37.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Zach Wilson has been among the least accurate passers in the league this year with a 58.1% Completion%, checking in at the 11th percentile.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a measly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.