Zach Wilson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Completions

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:36 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Wilson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+117/-147).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ +117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per play.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Zach Wilson's throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 56.0% to 60.0%.
The New York Jets O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in football against the New England Patriots defense this year (66.1%).
The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 9th-best group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a mere 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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