Zach Wilson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Completions

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -131 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The New York Jets O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Zach Wilson has been among the least on-target passers in the league this year with a 57.1% Completion%, grading out in the 3rd percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.