Zach Wilson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Completions

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
The Detroit Lions cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The New York Jets O-line has afforded their QB 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a measly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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