Zach Pascal Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Zach Pascal

NFL · Player Props

Zach Pascal

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Pascal Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the NFL (72.6%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (72.6%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.90 seconds before the pass (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
Zach Pascal has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (31.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (90.2%).

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