Zach Gentry Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Zach Gentry

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Gentry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+920/-3500).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Zach Gentry has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among TEs, catching an impressive 82.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 5th-highest Completion% in the NFL (75.9%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (75.9%).

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Zach Gentry has accounted for a meager 0.1% of his offense's air yards this year: a lowly 25th percentile among TEs.
Zach Gentry grades out in the 1st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.