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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Arizona Cardinals vs Washington Commanders

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -210 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

In this game, Zach Ertz is predicted by the projections to place in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.5 targets.

Zach Ertz has been in the 94th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) with an impressive 40.7 figure since the start of last season.

The Commanders O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

With an outstanding 3.9 adjusted catches per game (86th percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz rates among the leading TEs in the pass game in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Washington Commanders as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Cardinals, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (just 29.0 per game) since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Arizona Cardinals defense has given up a meager 71.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 10th-smallest rate in the league.

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