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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 21

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-169/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -169.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a -6-point underdog in this week's game.

The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 60.4 per game on average).

In this week's contest, Zach Ertz is forecasted by the projections to finish in the 91st percentile among tight ends with 5.3 targets.

With a remarkable 17.5% Target Rate (89th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz ranks as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.

With a stellar 3.5 adjusted catches per game (83rd percentile) this year, Zach Ertz rates among the leading pass-game TEs in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Commanders to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Eagles, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 27.8 per game) this year.

The Eagles pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.8%) vs. tight ends this year (71.8%).

As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Philadelphia's group of LBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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