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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.

The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).

The leading projections forecast Zach Ertz to total 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the leading projections forecast this game (with an average of 26.34 seconds per play) will play at the 11th-most sluggish tempo on the slate this week.

The Eagles pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (72.2%) versus TEs this year (72.2%).

When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Philadelphia's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

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