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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are projected by the model to run 68.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).

Zach Ertz has run a route on 78.6% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

The leading projections forecast Zach Ertz to accrue 5.4 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.

Zach Ertz checks in as one of the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an outstanding 4.0 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Commanders, who are a huge favorite by 10.5 points.

The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.0 per game) this year.

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