My Account Log Out
 
 
Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -156.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may decline.
  • The predictive model expects Zach Ertz to earn 5.7 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
  • With an extraordinary 19.2% Target% (93rd percentile) this year, Zach Ertz rates among the tight ends with the most usage in football.
  • The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With respect to a defense's effect on pace, at 29.13 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 5th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
  • When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Philadelphia's unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the league.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2022 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™