Zach Ertz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) since they be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are huge underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their standard approach.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
In this week's game, Zach Ertz is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.0 targets.
Zach Ertz comes in as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a fantastic 3.9 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (55.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are predicted by the projection model to call just 62.9 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Zach Ertz's 74.4% Route% this year represents a a meaningful regression in his passing offense workload over last year's 88.7% figure.
The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all air attack stats across the board.

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