Zach Ertz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a massive 11.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Zach Ertz's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.8% to 62.1%.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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