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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a -6-point underdog in this week's game.

The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 60.4 per game on average).

In this week's contest, Zach Ertz is forecasted by the projections to finish in the 91st percentile among tight ends with 5.3 targets.

With a remarkable 17.5% Target Rate (89th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz ranks as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.

Zach Ertz has accrued a staggering 40.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile when it comes to tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Commanders to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Eagles, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 27.8 per game) this year.

This year, the strong Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered a meager 33.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-best in the NFL.

The Eagles pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. TEs this year, surrendering 6.39 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in football.

As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Philadelphia's group of LBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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