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Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-108/-120).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -108.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Commanders this year (a whopping 59.3 per game on average).This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.Opposing offenses have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 5th-most in football.This week, Zach Ertz is expected by the predictive model to find himself in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.4 targets.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Commanders are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 51.3% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.Zach Ertz checks in as one of the worst tight ends in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.42 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 6th percentile.When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New Orleans's collection of LBs has been very good this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.
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