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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are projected by the model to run 68.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
  • The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).
  • Zach Ertz has run a route on 78.6% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • The leading projections forecast Zach Ertz to accrue 5.4 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • As it relates to air yards, Zach Ertz ranks in the lofty 93rd percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating an astounding 42.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Commanders, who are a huge favorite by 10.5 points.
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.0 per game) this year.
  • Zach Ertz has been one of the bottom TEs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 8th percentile.

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