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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may decline.
  • The predictive model expects Zach Ertz to earn 5.7 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
  • With an extraordinary 19.2% Target% (93rd percentile) this year, Zach Ertz rates among the tight ends with the most usage in football.
  • In regards to air yards, Zach Ertz ranks in the towering 93rd percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a massive 43.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With respect to a defense's effect on pace, at 29.13 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 5th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
  • With a poor 2.38 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (7th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz has been as one of the best pass-game TEs in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.
  • This year, the imposing Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up a mere 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 5th-best in football.
  • The Eagles pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, surrendering 6.81 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in football.

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