Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) since they be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are huge underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their standard approach.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
In this week's game, Zach Ertz is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.0 targets.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus TEs since the start of last season, allowing 9.73 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (55.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are predicted by the projection model to call just 62.9 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Zach Ertz's 74.4% Route% this year represents a a meaningful regression in his passing offense workload over last year's 88.7% figure.
Zach Ertz has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (45.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).

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