Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals may lean on the pass less in this game (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
A passing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The leading projections forecast Zach Ertz to total 6.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.
With a remarkable 23.0% Target Rate (98th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz ranks among the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.
The Rams defense has been torched for the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (67.0) to tight ends this year.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-centric team in football (55.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cardinals are projected by the projections to run just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.2 plays per game.
After totaling 57.0 air yards per game last year, Zach Ertz has gotten worse this year, now pacing 49.0 per game.

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