Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Zach Ertz is projected by the projection model to rank in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.4 targets.
Zach Ertz's 25.0% Target Share this year shows a a remarkable gain in his passing game volume over last year's 19.5% mark.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 56.1% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Cincinnati Bengals, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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