Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to utilize backup QB Joshua Dobbs this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a massive 14.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Zach Ertz to garner 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Favors Under

The Cardinals will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.4% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cardinals have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions this week.
Zach Ertz's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.8% to 66.2%.