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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-120/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Cardinals are a massive 11.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

Zach Ertz's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.8% to 62.1%.

Zach Ertz's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling a measly 3.87 yards-per-target vs a 6.14 rate last season.

Zach Ertz's ability to grind out extra yardage has worsened this season, accumulating just 2.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.57 figure last season.

The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, allowing 6.00 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.

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