Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a massive 11.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Zach Ertz's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.8% to 62.1%.
Zach Ertz's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling a measly 3.87 yards-per-target vs a 6.14 rate last season.
Zach Ertz's ability to grind out extra yardage has worsened this season, accumulating just 2.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.57 figure last season.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, allowing 6.00 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.

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