Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Zach Ertz has run a route on 88.6% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in football.
Zach Ertz's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.8% to 59.9%.

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