Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per snap.
Zach Ertz has totaled a whopping 57.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz has been among the top pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 41.0 yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 5th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.0% pass rate.
The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to be much less involved in his offense's passing game this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.5% in games he has played).