Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:41 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 68.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Zach Ertz has gone out for fewer passes this season (86.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (73.2%).
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to notch 7.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

Zach Ertz's receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, accumulating a measly 5.83 yards-per-target compared to a 6.84 figure last year.
Zach Ertz has been among the worst tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.
The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 29.0) vs. tight ends this year.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (54.9%) versus tight ends this year (54.9%).
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has displayed good efficiency against TEs this year, giving up 4.77 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.

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