Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:00 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 41.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.50 seconds per snap.
Zach Ertz has run a route on 82.2% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to accumulate 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz has totaled a whopping 51.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz has been among the best pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 42.0 yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
Zach Ertz's receiving effectiveness has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 5.61 yards-per-target compared to a 6.84 rate last season.
The Carolina Panthers defense has yielded the 6th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, surrendering 6.28 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in football.