Zach Ertz Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-310).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +222 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +205.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Zach Ertz has put up a monstrous 53.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz's 44.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 96th percentile for tight ends.
Zach Ertz grades out in the 91st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (24.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (37.9% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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