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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles

Zach Ertz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+246/-398).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +265 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +246.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 70.2 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 10th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to be a less important option in his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (25.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (38.5% in games he has played).

Zach Ertz has posted quite a few less air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (52.0 per game).

The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers rank as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Arizona Cardinals O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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