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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals

Zach Ertz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+278/-473).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -340 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -473.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.50 seconds per snap.

Zach Ertz has totaled a whopping 51.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.

Zach Ertz's 39.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for TEs.

Zach Ertz ranks in the 85th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.29 per game.

The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.

THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to be a much smaller piece of his team's air attack near the goal line this week (25.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (36.4% in games he has played).

The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

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