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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams

Zach Ertz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +211 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +198.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.25 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.

Zach Ertz has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 33.3% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 3rd-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to TEs: 0.21 per game since the start of last season.

The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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