Will Levis TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Will Levis

NFL · Player Props

Will Levis

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Will Levis TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-270/+210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to lean 2.5% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in the league vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year (73.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 56.1% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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