Will Levis TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Will Levis

NFL · Player Props

Will Levis

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Will Levis TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-285/+205).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Titans offensive scheme to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the league (41.6 per game) this year.
This year, the feeble Jaguars defense has been gouged for a staggering 1.56 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Titans to pass on 55.7% of their downs: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect the Titans to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Jacksonville's CB corps has been great this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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