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Will Dissly

Will Dissly Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Will Dissly Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 62.2% rate of passing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league has been the Los Angeles Chargers.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have just 127.7 plays on offense run: the fewest on the slate this week.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

In this game, Will Dissly is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.0 targets.

Will Dissly has been a more important option in his offense's passing game this season (14.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (3.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.

The Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.

Will Dissly's 81.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a material drop-off in his receiving skills over last year's 89.4% mark.

The Houston Texans pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67%) to tight ends this year (67.0%).

As it relates to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Houston's collection of DEs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 7th-best in the league.

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