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Will Dissly

Will Dissly Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Will Dissly Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+114/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -167 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop-off.

The leading projections forecast Will Dissly to earn 4.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.

Will Dissly has been a more integral piece of his team's air attack this season (15.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (3.5%).

Will Dissly's pass-catching performance gotten better this year, averaging 3.3 adjusted catches compared to a measly 1.4 last year.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 6-point favorite in this week's contest.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chargers to pass on 53.7% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the fewest among all games this week.

The fewest plays in football have been run by the Chargers this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Patriots, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 32.7 per game) this year.

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