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Will Dissly

Will Dissly Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

Will Dissly Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) this year.

In this week's game, Will Dissly is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 90th percentile among tight ends with 6.6 targets.

Will Dissly has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this year (17.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (3.5%).

Will Dissly's 3.7 adjusted receptions per game this year illustrates a significant growth in his receiving prowess over last year's 1.4 figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers.

Will Dissly's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 89.4% to 81.1%.

The Falcons pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.3%) vs. tight ends this year (72.3%).

The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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