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Velus Jones Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+145/-190).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +145.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Bears are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.The New England Patriots defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.0 plays per game.The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
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