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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the model to see 134.2 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.

Van Jefferson's 61.3% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a significant boost in his receiving ability over last year's 46.7% rate.

The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.4%) to wideouts this year (67.4%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Van Jefferson's 64.9% snap rate this season reflects a substantial boost in his offensive workload over last season's 52.0% rate.

With a measly 1.6 adjusted receptions per game (22nd percentile) this year, Van Jefferson stands among the bottom WRs in the NFL in football.

The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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