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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -159 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -167.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Steelers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Right now, the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Steelers.

The Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.9 per game) this year.

Van Jefferson's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 46.7% to 61.3%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Van Jefferson has been a more important option in his team's offense this season, staying in the game for 64.9% of snaps vs just 52.0% last season.

With a measly 1.6 adjusted catches per game (22nd percentile) this year, Van Jefferson has been as one of the weakest wide receivers in the NFL in the league.

This year, the daunting Ravens defense has allowed a paltry 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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