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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-215/+160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -210 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -215.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Atlanta offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 51.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.

Van Jefferson has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this season (7.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (16.1%).

Van Jefferson's receiving performance has diminished this year, averaging a measly 0.7 adjusted receptions vs 2.4 last year.

Van Jefferson grades out as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing a mere 51.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 19th percentile among wide receivers

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