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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+175/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -220.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Van Jefferson has been a much smaller part of his offense's pass game this season (8.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (16.1%).

Van Jefferson's pass-catching performance diminished this season, averaging a mere 0.8 adjusted catches compared to 2.4 last season.

Van Jefferson comes in as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football, catching a measly 51.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 20th percentile among WRs

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