Van Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 137.0 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.9 plays per game.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Van Jefferson has been a much smaller piece of his offense's passing game this year (8.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (16.1%).
Van Jefferson's 0.9 adjusted catches per game this year represents a material diminishment in his receiving prowess over last year's 2.4 figure.
Van Jefferson has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 51.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 20th percentile among wideouts
This year, the daunting Saints defense has conceded a measly 59.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-lowest rate in football.

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