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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.

At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Van Jefferson's 61.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a substantial growth in his pass-catching ability over last season's 46.7% figure.

Van Jefferson's pass-game effectiveness has gotten better this year, totaling 7.86 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 4.91 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Van Jefferson has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this season, staying on the field for 64.0% of snaps compared to just 52.0% last season.

Van Jefferson has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (27.0 per game) than he did last year (43.0 per game).

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 125.0) vs. WRs this year.

This year, the tough Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded the least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a paltry 7.1 yards.

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