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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-119/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -119.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.

The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).

Van Jefferson's 69.7% Route Participation% this season reflects a material progression in his passing attack utilization over last season's 58.4% mark.

Van Jefferson's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 46.7% to 60.5%.

Van Jefferson's 6.7 adjusted yards per target this year reflects a material growth in his pass-catching ability over last year's 4.9 figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 44.1% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher rush volume.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.

After totaling 43.0 air yards per game last season, Van Jefferson has gotten worse this season, currently averaging 27.0 per game.

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