Van Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
The model projects Van Jefferson to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game in this game (15.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.2% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings defense has been torched for the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (176.0) to WRs this year.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Van Jefferson has totaled far fewer air yards this season (50.0 per game) than he did last season (63.0 per game).
Van Jefferson's 14.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season conveys a significant reduction in his receiving talent over last season's 39.0 figure.
With a subpar 52.5% Adjusted Catch Rate (20th percentile) this year, Van Jefferson places among the worst possession receivers in the NFL among wideouts.

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