Van Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 5:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.0 plays per game.
This year, the shaky Tennessee Titans defense has allowed a staggering 175.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 8th-worst in the league.
This year, the weak Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed a massive 75.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.
The Titans linebackers profile as the 7th-worst LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.5 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
Van Jefferson's 7.1% Target% this season conveys a noteworthy drop-off in his air attack volume over last season's 16.1% figure.
After averaging 63.0 air yards per game last year, Van Jefferson has produced significantly less this year, currently boasting 48.0 per game.
Van Jefferson's 16.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies a remarkable decline in his pass-catching ability over last year's 39.0 mark.

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